Will American Pharoah Make History Today?

Today American Pharoah, a 3-year-old Thoroughbred racehorse, will run in the 147th Belmont Stakes making an attempt at winning the Triple Crown. The Triple Crown, which hasn't been won since 1978, consists of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in Louisville, the Preakness at Pimlico in Baltimore, and the Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park in New York. The fastest Belmont Stakes was run by Secretariat in 1973 and the last time the Triple Crown was won was by Affirmed in 1978. Videos of both races available online.

Several factors make it challenging to win all 3 races. First, the horses are only 3-year-olds and relatively inexperienced. Secondly, the races are different lengths requiring the racehorses to be speedy in both a sprint and going the distance. Thirdly, the races come very close together (all within a 5-week period) and often the horses are tired heading into the Belmont Stakes. 

So what is the likelihood American Pharoah can win today?  Here are some relevant facts. 

1) American Pharoah is being trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Victor Espinoza.  His jockey Victor has won the Kentucky Derby 3 times and the Preakness 3 times. Whatever happens today, he is making history by being the only jockey to have ever had 3 chances to win the Triple Crown (War Emblem in 2002 and California Chrome in 2014). His trainer has trained horses who have won each of the Triple Crown races, although never yet the entire set by one horse.

2) American Pharoah has won against all the horses he will race today and has always looked like he had more energy remaining.

3) The Belmont Stakes is longer (1 1/2 miles compared to 1 3/16 for the Preakness) and on a deeper sand footing than American Pharoah raced on in Kentucky Derby and the Preakness. 

4) Although American Pharoah did win the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, both were fairly slow.  In fact the Preakness was the slowest time since 1956!

5) Of the 21 horses who won both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, only 11 succeeded in winning the Belmont and the Triple Crown. Last year California Chrome came close and in 2012 I'll Have Another also won the first 2 races only to flag in the Belmont.

What do you think will happen?  Be sure to watch it on NBC.  Post time is 5:50 pm CDT. The pre-race coverage is on now!

Bored while you're watching all the race prep?  Look at hobby farms and horse properties for sale in MN at www.donavin.com or www.mnhorseproperties.com